By Shale Markets · Tuesday, September 22, 2026 · 5 min read

Appalachian Gas Output Stalls at 34.7-36.2 Bcf/d as Takeaway Bottlenecks Push Relief Into 2027

Original illustration created for Shale Markets.

Operators Are Absorbing the Basis Hit

EQT reported second-quarter 2025 sales volumes of 568 Bcfe on July 22, 2025. CEO Toby Rice told analysts that realized pricing was hit by "much wider-than-expected local basis," and said the company was using a tactical curtailment strategy to hold value rather than push volume into a constrained market. EQT is also working to lock in in-basin demand, including the 800 MMcf/d Shippingport Power Station, a hedge against relying on export pipe that isn't there yet.

Antero Resources posted a 7% year-over-year decline in natural gas production for the fourth quarter of 2024, according to a summary published by Quartr on June 29, 2026. Antero's own framing, repeated in that summary, is that Appalachia has "historically garnered a discount due to the 'lack of takeaway capacity.'" The same summary reports that Antero set 2025 guidance at 3.35 to 3.45 Bcfe/d, prioritizing free cash flow over volume growth while the constraint persists.

The production math backs this up at the play level, though the most recent public breakout is from 2024. EIA data published October 24, 2024 showed Utica shale gas output down 10%, or 0.6 Bcf/d, in the first nine months of 2024 compared with the same period in 2023. Marcellus production over the same stretch was flat, per the same EIA release. EIA attributed both outcomes to a combination of low gas prices and infrastructure constraints that make additional drilling less profitable for operators already sitting on gas they can't fully move.

What's Actually Pending at FERC — and What Isn't Clear

Two projects on FERC's pending list, as of an April 13, 2026 filing, would materially change basin egress. Eastern Gas Transmission and Storage's Appalachian Reliability Project, Docket CP25-528-000, proposes 550 MMcf/d of new capacity in Ohio and Pennsylvania. The Southeast Supply Enhancement Project itself, Docket CP25-10-000, is listed on that same April 13, 2026 filing at 1,597 MMcf/d — the same expansion AEGIS cites as the fix for MVP's Transco Zone 5 bottleneck, filed under its formal FERC capacity number rather than AEGIS's rounded 1.6 Bcf/d.

One project has already cleared the approval stage. FERC issued a Certificate of Public Convenience and Necessity for the Appalachia to Market III Project on February 25, 2026, according to Enbridge, which owns the Texas Eastern system carrying the expansion. Enbridge states that construction is authorized to begin in March 2027, with a company target in-service date of August 2027; both dates come from the project sponsor rather than a separate FERC schedule order. The project is designed to add deliverability from the Appalachian Basin into mid-Atlantic markets — a corridor distinct from the Transco Zone 5 fix but addressing the same underlying problem: gas produced in Pennsylvania and Ohio that has nowhere efficient to go.

None of this capacity solves the near-term basis problem. Operators pricing 2026 and early 2027 volumes are pricing them against the existing pipe, not the pipe that's coming.

Demand Growth Outpacing Egress

The strain shows up at the national level too. FERC's 2025 State of the Markets report, published March 26, 2026, noted that the East and Middle Atlantic regions remain highly sensitive to pipeline capacity changes because of "limitations to growth in production in the Appalachia Basin." Export demand is climbing faster than the basin that used to be the marginal supplier can respond, and the regions closest to that supply are the ones absorbing the volatility.

Marcellus Shale Coalition President Jim Welty issued a statement on September 10, 2026 calling for federal permitting reform, arguing that states should be prevented from "abusing the permitting process" in ways that stall pipeline build-out between Pennsylvania and the New England and Southeast markets that need the gas. The American Petroleum Institute made a similar argument two years earlier, when Executive Vice President Amanda Eversole called on Congress, in a July 22, 2024 statement, to fix the "broken permitting system" and backed the Energy Permitting Reform Act of 2024. That bill did not become law, and both SESE and Appalachia to Market III moved through the existing FERC certificate process on their own timeline regardless.

What to Watch

Two dates matter for anyone modeling 2027 Appalachian deliverability. Both dates — a March 2027 construction start and an August 2027 in-service target for Appalachia to Market III — come from Enbridge, the project's owner, not from a separate FERC schedule order. Basis differentials into 2027 forward curves should tighten as those dates approach, assuming they hold — an assumption East Daley's own history with MVP suggests should not be taken for granted.